1,000 Matches on MTGO
On April 23, 2015, I played my first match on MTGO with Modern BW Tokens. On March 14, 2019, I played my 1,000th. All of the matches minus 10 (two 5-game friendly leagues, where I went 4-6) were what I would consider competitive: 8-player queues, 2-player queues, competitive leagues, PTQ preliminaries, and MOCS monthlies. All 80 of my 2019 matches were competitive league matches. While my decklist changed often and I didn’t record each individual decklist I ran online, my decklists closely matched what I played in Grand Prix around that time, so I’m providing all my Modern BW Tokens Grand Prix decklists below from 2015 on. While I sporadically ran some more unique online versions, such as splashing red for Blood Moon and main decking Slaughter Games, the majority of my decklists didn’t stray far from the lists I ran at the Grand Prix.
My 2019 decklist for each of the 80 competitive league matches stayed the same with the exception of swapping Wrath of God in for Damping Sphere in the sideboard. You might also notice my list is off by one card from my SCG Classic Top 4 and Grand Prix Toronto Day 2 list: I run 3 Arid Mesa online, 2 Mesa and 1 Heath in real life.
Here’s my updated list: Tokens
While I admit major limitations of this analysis including not providing complete decklists, my own subjective coding of matchup names, and no context of the metagame at the time of each match, I know of no other 1,000 game analysis from someone dedicated to playing Modern BW Tokens over a three and a half year period of time. A data-driven process should lend itself well toward supporting or rejecting certain assumptions and “feelings” about BW Tokens matchups or the deck in general.
First, results by year.
Modern BW Tokens Results by Year
| YEAR | # OF MATCHES | WINS | LOSSES | WIN% |
| 2015 | 265 | 148 | 117 | .558 |
| 2016 | 451 | 290 | 161 | .643 |
| 2017 | 148 | 59 | 89 | .399 |
| 2018 | 56 | 24 | 32 | .429 |
| 2019 | 80 | 47 | 33 | .588 |
| TOTAL | 1,000 | 568 | 432 | .568 |
Discussion
As you can see from the chart, my overall win rate for BW Tokens is 56.8%. This is a result I can stand behind. For someone like me, who isn’t a top-level player and doesn’t spend a ton of time playing Magic, going 56% vs. people who care enough to play MTGO competitively is what I would consider a success. Furthermore, my in real life Grand Prix win % with BW Tokens (not counting byes) is 56.4%, so my MTGO win % being higher feels like a win.
The real win came in 2015 and 2016. I went a whopping 64% across a whopping 451 games in 2016, leading me to conclude that BW Tokens was EXCELLENT in the meta in 2016 and that it’s been downhill since. However, all my recent yammering about how BW Tokens is favorable in the meta once again (see every blog post below) seems well-founded, as my win percentage over 80 games in 2019 (58.8%) is even higher than my overall win percentage. Based on my results, BW Tokens is in a better spot now than it has been since 2016.
Ok, here are the results by matchup. I’m including data for all matchups, but note many are just one or two matches, making it very hard to draw conclusions from such a small sample.
Modern BW Tokens Results by Matchup
| Matchup | Matches | Win % |
| 8 Rack | 3 | 67% |
| Abzan Midrange | 21 | 57% |
| Abzan Blue Good Stuff | 1 | 0% |
| Ad Nauseam | 19 | 37% |
| Affinity | 50 | 70% |
| Allies | 2 | 0% |
| Altar of Brood | 2 | 100% |
| Amulet Titan | 11 | 27% |
| Bant Eldrazi | 11 | 9% |
| Bant Knigthfall | 8 | 13% |
| Bant Midrange | 1 | 100% |
| Bant Training Grounds | 1 | 100% |
| BG Deathcloud | 1 | 0% |
| BG Journey to Eternity Grave Titan | 1 | 100% |
| BG Rock | 4 | 75% |
| Big Red | 6 | 83% |
| Blue Moon | 6 | 66% |
| Boggles | 28 | 64% |
| BR Hangarback (Greenless Jund) | 1 | 100% |
| Burn | 67 | 58% |
| BW D&T/Deadguy Ale/Eldrazi | 13 | 46% |
| BW Tokens (Mirror) | 9 | 78% |
| CoCo Decks (non-counters) | 12 | 58% |
| Control – 4 Color | 1 | 100% |
| Counters Company | 4 | 0% |
| Cruel Control | 1 | 0% |
| Dark Naya Kiki Resto Midrange 62 card pile | 1 | 100% |
| Death and Taxes (not BW) | 9 | 56% |
| Death’s Shadow (non-Grixis) | 15 | 53% |
| Delver | 26 | 81% |
| Dredge | 25 | 64% |
| Eldrazi (non-Tron) | 6 | 67% |
| Eldrazi Tron | 15 | 20% |
| Elves | 16 | 63% |
| Enchantments | 6 | 67% |
| Esper Control | 7 | 29% |
| Esper Midrange | 1 | 100% |
| Faeries | 8 | 63% |
| Fiery Justice/Tainted Remedy 4 Color | 1 | 100% |
| Footsteps Combo – Protean Hulk Body Double | 1 | 0% |
| Four Color Creatures Fliers | 1 | 0% |
| Four Color Gifts Worm Harvest/Raven’s Crime | 1 | 100% |
| Genesis Wave – GR | 1 | 0% |
| Goblins | 10 | 90% |
| Goryo’s Vengeance (non Grishoalbrand) | 4 | 75% |
| Grishoalbrand | 5 | 80% |
| Grixis Control | 15 | 73% |
| Grixis Death’s Shadow | 13 | 85% |
| Grixis Pyromancer | 1 | 100% |
| Grixis Twin | 8 | 75% |
| GW Angels | 2 | 100% |
| GW Hatebears | 2 | 50% |
| GW Séance | 1 | 0% |
| Hardened Scales | 1 | 100% |
| Heroic BW | 1 | 100% |
| Hollow One | 4 | 50% |
| Humans | 15 | 47% |
| Infect | 38 | 53% |
| Izzet Phoenix | 6 | 33% |
| Jeskai | 20 | 60% |
| Jund | 38 | 79% |
| Kiln Fiend Combo | 3 | 67% |
| KCI | 12 | 75% |
| Kiki Evolution | 1 | 100% |
| Lantern | 21 | 38% |
| Living End | 18 | 33% |
| Loam – Bant Unburial Rites Gifts | 1 | 100% |
| Mardu | 10 | 90% |
| Merfolk | 20 | 40% |
| Mill – UB | 4 | 25% |
| Mono-Black | 4 | 100% |
| Mono-Green Aggro | 4 | 75% |
| Mono-Red Phoenix | 8 | 100% |
| Mono-White Aggro | 3 | 100% |
| Naya Aggro/Blitz | 4 | 100% |
| Naya Walkers Doubling Season | 1 | 0% |
| Norin the Wary | 3 | 67% |
| Ponza | 15 | 60% |
| Prison – BR | 1 | 0% |
| Puresteel Paladin Equipment Mono White | 1 | 0% |
| Rally the Ancestors | 4 | 100% |
| Red Deck Wins | 7 | 86% |
| Restore Balance | 4 | 50% |
| RG Tree Shamans | 1 | 100% |
| RG Valakut Breach | 5 | 20% |
| RG Vengevine | 4 | 50% |
| RW Aggro | 2 | 50% |
| RW Angels | 2 | 50% |
| RW Nahiri Control | 4 | 75% |
| Scapeshift | 17 | 47% |
| Slivers | 2 | 50% |
| Smallpox | 6 | 67% |
| Soldiers | 1 | 100% |
| Soul Sisters | 16 | 69% |
| Sphinx’s Tutelage | 1 | 0% |
| Spirits | 4 | 50% |
| Storm | 21 | 34% |
| Sultai Ascendancy – 4-Color (no red) | 1 | 100% |
| Sultai Midrange | 1 | 100% |
| Sultai Reclamation | 1 | 0% |
| Sun and Moon | 6 | 100% |
| Sword of Meek Tezzeret Esper Thopter | 1 | 100% |
| Temur/Temur Kiki | 3 | 0% |
| Temur Twin | 1 | 100% |
| Through the Breach | 2 | 50% |
| TitanShift | 7 | 29% |
| Treasure Hunt | 1 | 100% |
| Tribal Flames | 2 | 100% |
| Tron | 68 | 26% |
| Turns | 1 | 0% |
| UB Tezzeret | 2 | 50% |
| UR Possibility Storm | 1 | 0% |
| UR Prowess/Pyromancer | 3 | 100% |
| UR Twin | 8 | 63% |
| UW Control | 14 | 43% |
| UW Control (non-traditional) | 11 | 73% |
| Waste Not | 1 | 100% |
| Whir | 2 | 0% |
| Zombie Infestation | 2 | 100% |
| Zoo | 18 | 72% |
Here are the matchups best to worst, only including matchups over 10 matches or decks currently in the meta.
Modern BW Tokens Best to Worst Matchups
| Matchup | Matches | Win % |
| Hardened Scales | 1 | 100% |
| Mono-Red Phoenix | 8 | 100% |
| Goblins | 10 | 90% |
| Mardu | 10 | 90% |
| Red Deck Wins | 7 | 86% |
| Grixis Death’s Shadow | 13 | 85% |
| Big Red | 6 | 83% |
| Delver | 26 | 81% |
| Grishoalbrand | 5 | 80% |
| Jund | 38 | 79% |
| BG Rock | 4 | 75% |
| KCI | 12 | 75% |
| Grixis Control | 15 | 73% |
| UW Control (non-traditional) | 11 | 73% |
| Zoo | 18 | 72% |
| Affinity | 50 | 70% |
| Soul Sisters | 16 | 69% |
| Boggles | 28 | 64% |
| Dredge | 25 | 64% |
| Elves | 16 | 63% |
| Faeries | 8 | 63% |
| Jeskai | 20 | 60% |
| Ponza | 15 | 60% |
| Burn | 67 | 58% |
| CoCo Decks (non-counters) | 12 | 58% |
| Abzan Midrange | 21 | 57% |
| Death’s Shadow (non-Grixis) | 15 | 53% |
| Infect | 38 | 53% |
| Hollow One | 4 | 50% |
| Spirits | 4 | 50% |
| Humans | 15 | 47% |
| Scapeshift | 17 | 47% |
| BW D&T/Deadguy Ale/Eldrazi | 13 | 46% |
| UW Control | 14 | 43% |
| Merfolk | 20 | 40% |
| Lantern | 21 | 38% |
| Ad Nauseam | 19 | 37% |
| Storm | 21 | 34% |
| Izzet Phoenix | 6 | 33% |
| Living End | 18 | 33% |
| TitanShift | 7 | 29% |
| Amulet Titan | 11 | 27% |
| Tron | 68 | 26% |
| Eldrazi Tron | 15 | 20% |
| Bant Knigthfall | 8 | 13% |
| Bant Eldrazi | 11 | 9% |
| Counters Company | 4 | 0% |
| Turns | 1 | 0% |
| Whir | 2 | 0% |
Discussion
I’ve long considered Bant Eldrazi the worst matchup for BW Tokens, and that’s consistent here, as 9% is the lowest win rate against any deck I faced over ten times. I still haven’t beaten Whir Prison and I think that deck is looking to be Tokens’ new Bant Eldrazi. Beating Tron one out of four tries seems pretty good and clearly I’m doing something right to survive that often.
Surprises include the low win percentage vs. Izzet Phoenix (hopefully just an artifact of few matches, but it’s concerning) and Abzan Midrange. I’m not really sure about that one. I will say that I beat Lucas Siow on Abzan at GP Pitt in 2015, and if you’re beating Lucas Siow, you’re doing something quite remarkable, so I do like BW Token’s chances vs. Abzan regardless of the 57% here. Similar thoughts on Infect, what I perceive to be another great matchup, though I did get smashed by Blighted Agent both games en route to an 0-2 demolition at day 2 of GP Toronto 2019.
My support of Auriok Champion was vindicated. Great matchups vs. the red decks are clear from the results above. While Auriok Champion may cost me some matches vs. combo and control, I’ll take my 58.8% this year and continue focusing on winning my good matchups.
GP Toronto 2019
| 4 | Concealed Courtyard |
| 4 | Marsh Flats |
| 2 | Arid Mesa |
| 4 | Plains |
| 1 | Swamp |
| 4 | Godless Shrine |
| 1 | Fetid Heath |
| 2 | Shambling Vent |
| 1 | Vault of the Archangel |
| 1 | Windswept Heath |
| 4 | Auriok Champion |
| 4 | Lingering Souls |
| 4 | Spectral Procession |
| 2 | Bitterblossom |
| 2 | Hidden Stockpile |
| 2 | Secure the Wastes |
| 3 | Sorin, Solemn Visitor |
| 4 | Intangible Virtue |
| 2 | Zealous Persecution |
| 4 | Path to Exile |
| 3 | Thoughtseize |
| 2 | Inquisition of Kozelik |
| 60 | |
| 2 | Rest in Peace |
| 1 | Burrenton Forge-Tender |
| 3 | Stony Silence |
| 2 | Disenchant |
| 2 | Duress |
| 1 | Runed Halo |
| 1 | Lost Legacy |
| 1 | Fatal Push |
| 1 | Engineered Explosives |
| 1 | Damping Sphere |
| 15 |
GP Hartford 2018
| 4 | Concealed Courtyard |
| 4 | Marsh Flats |
| 2 | Arid Mesa |
| 4 | Plains |
| 1 | Swamp |
| 4 | Godless Shrine |
| 1 | Fetid Heath |
| 2 | Shambling Vent |
| 1 | Vault of the Archangel |
| 1 | Windswept Heath |
| 4 | Auriok Champion |
| 4 | Lingering Souls |
| 4 | Spectral Procession |
| 2 | Worship |
| 2 | Hidden Stockpile |
| 2 | Secure the Wastes |
| 3 | Sorin, Solemn Visitor |
| 4 | Intangible Virtue |
| 2 | Zealous Persecution |
| 4 | Path to Exile |
| 3 | Thoughtseize |
| 2 | Inquisition of Kozelik |
| 60 | |
| 2 | Rest in Peace |
| 1 | Burrenton Forge-Tender |
| 3 | Stony Silence |
| 2 | Disenchant |
| 2 | Duress |
| 1 | Runed Halo |
| 2 | Lost Legacy |
| 1 | Fatal Push |
| 1 | Engineered Explosives |
| 15 |
GP Charlotte 2016
| 4 | Marsh Flats |
| 2 | Arid Mesa |
| 5 | Plains |
| 1 | Swamp |
| 4 | Godless Shrine |
| 1 | Isolated Chapel |
| 2 | Fetid Heath |
| 2 | Windbrisk Heights |
| 1 | Vault of the Archangel |
| 2 | Shambling Vent |
| 4 | Auriok Champion |
| 2 | Thoughtseize |
| 1 | Worship |
| 3 | Sorin, Solemn Visitor |
| 4 | Lingering Souls |
| 4 | Spectral Procession |
| 4 | Intangible Virtue |
| 2 | Zealous Persecution |
| 4 | Path to Exile |
| 1 | Murderous Cut |
| 4 | Inquisition of Kozelik |
| 2 | Secure the Wastes |
| 1 | Anguished Unmaking |
| 60 | |
| 2 | Rest in Peace |
| 1 | Burrenton Forge-Tender |
| 3 | Stony Silence |
| 1 | Disenchant |
| 2 | Duress |
| 1 | Runed Halo |
| 1 | Nevermore |
| 1 | Zealous Persecution |
| 1 | Ratchet Bomb |
| 1 | Timely Reinforcements |
| 1 | Relic of Progenitus |
| 15 |
GP Pitt 2015